klinemj
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Post by klinemj on Mar 30, 2020 21:30:44 GMT -5
PS - there are very clear mathematical models for this. Anyone who had high school biology that was any type of reputable class did a related experiment about this. So, what's happening is entirely predictable with very few inputs on facts about the disease. I have a friend who (for fun because he's a nerd) created a model and it's spot on nailing what's happening in Ohio. It also supports some very outrageous-sounding claims by Ohio's Director of Health that 40-60% of Ohioans could end up infected.
Mark
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klinemj
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Post by klinemj on Mar 30, 2020 22:02:58 GMT -5
And - one more PS...good news...the rate of increase of new US COVID-19 cases is decreasing! Stay the course...Italy is just ahead of the US on timeline and is now showing a good decline in new cases. The US - if we keep it up, will follow that same pattern. It's just math...math is good. Mark Attachments:
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klinemj
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Post by klinemj on Mar 30, 2020 22:13:41 GMT -5
And, I find following Italy's curve is instructive...here's their latest. They had a 1-3 week head start on the US, depending on region. Mark
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KeithL
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Post by KeithL on Mar 30, 2020 23:25:17 GMT -5
Here's another thing to consider.... As "the curve" progresses we will start to have ever-increasing numbers of people who have survived CoVid-19. And, as with most viruses, it seems pretty certain that those who survive CoVid-19 will be immune to catching it again. Therefore, as we have more survivors, we should reasonably expect places like nursing homes, and hospitals, and other places where there are lots of at-risk individuals, to actively seek out and hire survivors - who can neither catch CoVid-19 nor infect anybody else with it. Likewise, it would make sense for restaurants and stores to actively seek out employees who have been tested, found to have CoVid-19, survived it, and are now both immune to and safe from it... And, I find following Italy's curve is instructive...here's their latest. They had a 1-3 week head start on the US, depending on region. Mark
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Post by Deleted on Mar 30, 2020 23:33:56 GMT -5
Here's another thing to consider.... As "the curve" progresses we will start to have ever-increasing numbers of people who have survived CoVid-19. And, as with most viruses, it seems pretty certain that those who survive CoVid-19 will be immune to catching it again. Therefore, as we have more survivors, we should reasonably expect places like nursing homes, and hospitals, and other places where there are lots of at-risk individuals, to actively seek out and hire survivors - who can neither catch CoVid-19 nor infect anybody else with it. Likewise, it would make sense for restaurants and stores to actively seek out employees who have been tested, found to have CoVid-19, survived it, and are now both immune to and safe from it... And, I find following Italy's curve is instructive...here's their latest. They had a 1-3 week head start on the US, depending on region. Mark Blurt it out: Seems to me that you build upon a faulty premise Keith. You think the world is as rational as you when in reality there's some crying discrimination. They claim to be victims based on eugenics.
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KeithL
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Post by KeithL on Mar 30, 2020 23:48:05 GMT -5
Here's a bit of a reference for the state of Tennessee..... (latest published data)..... (note that we are "early in the curve"; we also have no subways or equivalent venues for "extreme spread")
number of people tested so far = 23,304 number who tested positive = 1,834 number hospitalized so far = 148 number of deaths so far = 13
My question is, why hospitals are collapsing if the numbers from covid are lower than the seasonal flu? Simple - the number of cases is rising very quickly, the severity is intense, and the equipment (ventilators, ICU beds, and staffing related to those) needed to try to save the patient is not in sufficient supply. As an example, if you look at the # of ICU beds in Atlanta, there are <1000. So...if >1000 end up needing one, it's a game of musical chairs and someone loses out. There are currently ~1600 cases in ATL...not all needing an ICU bed. But the total count can change quickly...and overrun the # of beds available...as happened in Italy, Spain, and soon to be NYC if it's not already happened. With COVID-19, the onset of symptoms can be far more severe than typical flu, which is why it is also known as "SARS-CoV-2" of which "SARS" stands for "severe, acute respiratory syndrome". It comes on and can take over the whole lung. Ordinary flu doesn't do that typically. And, regarding its quick spread...a person with COVID-19 is likely to infect 1.5-3 people before they even know they are infected. That's more than happens with ordinary flu. Add to that, there's no vaccine for COVID-19, but there is for the flu. So, it can spin out of control fast and it's very severe. I know 3 who have it - including Sir Chuck of the Nut. Mark
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Post by KeithL on Mar 30, 2020 23:50:41 GMT -5
I personally consider MOST of those claims to be far from credible... (Although I don't doubt that there are at least a few legitimate examples thrown in.)
But, sadly, I agree that we cannot count on rational behavior from human beings...
Here's another thing to consider.... As "the curve" progresses we will start to have ever-increasing numbers of people who have survived CoVid-19. And, as with most viruses, it seems pretty certain that those who survive CoVid-19 will be immune to catching it again. Therefore, as we have more survivors, we should reasonably expect places like nursing homes, and hospitals, and other places where there are lots of at-risk individuals, to actively seek out and hire survivors - who can neither catch CoVid-19 nor infect anybody else with it. Likewise, it would make sense for restaurants and stores to actively seek out employees who have been tested, found to have CoVid-19, survived it, and are now both immune to and safe from it... Blurt it out: Seems to me that you build upon a faulty premise Keith. You think the world is as rational as you when in reality there's some crying discrimination. They claim to be victims based on eugenics.
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Post by vcautokid on Mar 31, 2020 8:11:50 GMT -5
One side benefit of not working at my job I was laid off on. I had a skin rash that plain would not go away. Since I left there, I have no instances of this rash. Could be stress or environment related. Very interesting how that worked out.
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Post by DavidR on Mar 31, 2020 9:20:10 GMT -5
One side benefit of not working at my job I was laid off on. I had a skin rash that plain would not go away. Since I left there, I have no instances of this rash. Could be stress or environment related. Very interesting how that worked out. What materials/chemicals do you work with?
Nickle is a known allergen that will cause skin rash.
I did Health and Safety for over 20 years in several different manufacturing sectors.
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Post by vcautokid on Mar 31, 2020 9:57:51 GMT -5
Lots of dust. White Noise was way high above the Ill treated HVAC. After numerous times of telling them to change filters more often. They ignored everyone. I sneezed allot, sometimes had dry throught and had to drink massive amounts of water beyond maybe what is normal. Measured 89db White Noise and HVAC averaged. Peaked at 92db. I think the dust and other particles created an allergic reaction with me. Also the harmonics in the room may have created some other related issues with my health. Since I left there, no skin irritation, I am allot more calm. The white noise is gone from my life. Just going to my car or outside was relief. This was an environmental nightmare. Acoustically horrible with standing waves, nulls, and nodes like no other. Fatiguing to work in. I was always exhausted by the end of the day, and I had not physically exerted myself at all. It is like riding in a 737 with itching powder on you constantly. In so many ways I am glad I am not there anymore health wise. It was killing me. Won't even start with the stress. Thank goodness for the gym, or I would be dead now.
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klinemj
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Post by klinemj on Mar 31, 2020 10:10:06 GMT -5
FYI, for those interested, here's are two interesting sites. brutiarti - this is a build on my response to you. The first tracks a lot of info about each US County, including # of ICU beds. It's what I used in my quote about Atlanta having <1000 ICU beds - I tallied up the data from the major counties that make up ATL. In the top right, just use the drop downs to choose the state and county of interest. -->CLICK HERE<--The site below shows expected hospital utilization and potential extra beds/etc. needed based on models and data to date. It shows US overall and the dropdown in the middle allows you to view a state. -->CLICK HERE for Hospital Utlization Info<--Mark
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Post by vcautokid on Mar 31, 2020 13:11:02 GMT -5
So Covid-19 was the causal loss of my last job and now Covid-19 in odd twist of paying it forward is creating job opportunities for me.
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Post by DavidR on Mar 31, 2020 13:25:11 GMT -5
So Covid-19 was the causal loss of my last job and now Covid-19 in odd twist of paying it forward is creating job opportunities for me. One door closes, another opens
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Post by Deleted on Mar 31, 2020 23:12:31 GMT -5
So Covid-19 was the causal loss of my last job and now Covid-19 in odd twist of paying it forward is creating job opportunities for me. One door closes, another opens Blurt it out: "One door closes, another opens" unless you're the ones drowning outside the ark. Touche to the cliche
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Post by ÈlTwo on Mar 31, 2020 23:49:51 GMT -5
Mark, Thank you for the links to the reference information. Following the series of links, surfing if you will, led me to an answer of a question I had. The Johns Hopkins map lists total number recovered in the US, but it doesn't list it by county, apparently because they don't have a reliable method of reporting. I was wondering why the number recovered at every county is always 0, and now I know they did that as a placeholder until they get reliable statistics. Now I don't have to worry that nobody out here has recovered yet..
I'm still wary of going to shop for food, since the township I live in is considered a hot spot out here. The reporting makes it difficult to tell if it's Town of Huntington, which is fairly densely packed, or the Township, which includes a bunch of villages and hamlets (where I live).
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Post by vcautokid on Apr 2, 2020 17:12:52 GMT -5
Seems I am never far from computing. The new SSD now takes only 6 seconds to get me to Windows 10. This computer is an i7 from 2014. Not bad. Also I noticed everything is perkier. Best 65 bucks I have spent in recent history.
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Post by DavidR on Apr 2, 2020 17:48:27 GMT -5
Seems I am never far from computing. The new SSD now takes only 6 seconds to get me to Windows 10. This computer is an i7 from 2014. Not bad. Also I noticed everything is perkier. Best 65 bucks I have spent in recent history. Yup. I went with 1TB static drives in our latest desktop and 2 laptops.
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klinemj
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Post by klinemj on Apr 2, 2020 18:39:34 GMT -5
Mark, Thank you for the links to the reference information. Following the series of links, surfing if you will, led me to an answer of a question I had. The Johns Hopkins map lists total number recovered in the US, but it doesn't list it by county, apparently because they don't have a reliable method of reporting. I was wondering why the number recovered at every county is always 0, and now I know they did that as a placeholder until they get reliable statistics. Now I don't have to worry that nobody out here has recovered yet.. I'm still wary of going to shop for food, since the township I live in is considered a hot spot out here. The reporting makes it difficult to tell if it's Town of Huntington, which is fairly densely packed, or the Township, which includes a bunch of villages and hamlets (where I live). Glad to help. I understand being wary - I sure am, and I'm not even in a hotspot (at least it doesn't appear so yet). The best thing to do, in my opinion, is to take "universal precautions". That means to assume you are encountering exposure risks and take precautions against getting exposed. I used to have to do that in my career, so it's 2nd hand to me. I've been severely limiting my time out of the house to the bare necessities. The only reasons I have ventured out were to get groceries, some needed home repair items, and today I dropped my car off at my dealer for an oil change. I didn't wait for the repair...my wife and I went for a walk in the woods and came back to pick it up. And, whenever I am in a store, I wear a mask. My wife is an expert in clothing design and construction, and she's made us masks that allow inserting a nonwoven filter inside. The filter blocks a significant % of virus passive and lessens the risk of any meaningful viral load. Each time I go out, I put in a new filter, and I clean the fabric part when I get home. And, I carry paper napkins so if I have to touch something (a grocery cart, a touch screen, etc.) I can touch it with a napkin and then throw it away. And, I carry sanitizer and sanitize my hands as soon as I'm out of a store and done touching anything public. I was pleased that my local Honda dealer even wiped down my car keys and inside of my car before giving them back...and they wiped down the pen I signed with and everything! Stay safe.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 4, 2020 5:05:04 GMT -5
Queen Elizabeth will make an extremely rare address to the nation on Sunday as Britain grapples with the increasingly deadly coronavirus outbreak. Royal experts said it would be only the fifth such televised address she had made during her 68 years on the throne. "Her Majesty The Queen has recorded a special broadcast to the United Kingdom and the Commonwealth in relation to the coronavirus outbreak," Buckingham Palace said in statement, without giving any details about its content. (I am 50% British and our family has always loved the Queen, a very special lady...... God Save The Queen)
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klinemj
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Post by klinemj on Apr 7, 2020 19:19:09 GMT -5
It now reliably warm enough here in Cincy that I put my Def Tech 5500's back out on my deck. It's nice to sit out here and listen to Sweet Baby James.
Mark
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