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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2020 16:09:09 GMT -5
Just pointing out the dire consequences of "under reporting". Oxygen ventilators may not be readily available inventory when helping treat the infected here in America. I'm not discounting the consequences of under-reporting. However, I've seen many people use under-reporting as an excuse to not pay attention to any data at all (I'm not accusing Scott of that). So many have said "well, the data is under-reported so it doesn't mean anything" or use it to justify that the mortality rate "really isn't that high" (despite growing evidence it is quite high vs. ordinary flu!) Instead, it's important to view all data as something of value - even if there are limits. In the case of how I am looking at the data in the link I provided...I'm looking to see the signs of "flattening the curve". I'm not a medical provider, so I'm in no position to think about how much medical equipment to order if I think my facility will be short. I'm looking in hopes that I'll see signs all the actions we're taking are helping. Simply looking at some fixed number like "x cases and y deaths so far" tells me nothing that I'm interested in. Mark Clarification, are you suggesting a little bit of irony in that the data analyst might not be taking into account how having more than enough Oxygen Ventilators in stock may affect his statistical curve on the death rate? I can definitely see how such data may help whether preparing or treating the virus.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2020 16:10:21 GMT -5
Stop science here for a second. I don't for more than a moment give a Schiit or two about that. It is your attitude, your emotional state, your stress level. Staying focused on what matters to you. If you are one of the shallow panic mongers. I have no time for you. If you are someone who is on a mission to make it through happy, and healthy, lets talk. Keep a positive outlook, take the news in perspective. Take stock in your life, what you are doing and going to do. Stop now the negative. The Negative will kill you before covid 19 ever does. Love and be with your family in creative ways if need be. Take care of yourself. Exercise, stay clean, stay happy, talk to people about what and how you are feeling. I was pretty down yesterday and my day really went well with a couple of the right people. I went home happy and hopeful. Nothing is perfect. You have to make the best of any situation. I am not going to tell you how. That is your thing. Don't stop living because everyone else is off in their silliness. If you are feeling sad more than you should, reach out, share, help someone, do something that fulfills you. I know too many people where they are only themselves. It is harder to go this way in these trying times. Be ready for some new approaches. None of us should stay the same. Be more from this. Grow. Covid will be gone before we know it. We will prevail. So again stay positive, happy, engage in the thing to your best of your ability, make a difference and stay well. Yes, fear mongering has a way of driving people towards what is most important in life. Of course this is all relative depending on whether done in the name of science, politics, or religion.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2020 16:16:39 GMT -5
I suppose that a lot of the misinformation about treating CV is because CV has been around for decades and some might assume treatment for the decade old CV are effective. So far, I've not seen mis-information from true experts on treating COVID-19. I've seen a lot of people passing on a lot of bogus info like "gargling with (insert specific solution here) will kill the virus", but none of the ones I have seen originated from anyone with real "creds". In other words, my version of why there's been misinformation is that may people who have no clue about proper treatments are sharing whatever they think might help. PS - even the seasonal flu varies, and the vaccines for them vary by year. It's not just CV that varies over time. Mark I've seen it but I see it in all areas of my personal interests. For example, people theorizing on the origins of the Universe. Scientific methods go flying out the window, that is, observation, repeatability, and testability. And don't even get me started on Macro or Darwinian evolution. Models are created and attempt to explain what nobody observes etc. People with various degrees in unrelated fields are given credence because they are in an area considered "scientific". Narration of stick figures "fossils" are varying but most accepted depending on who has the best looking paper on the wall. Meanwhile, my mother's church are making masks for people. I don't have the heart to tell her that they are ineffective. I figure they are keeping her busy and making her feel as though she and her community are doing something. On the other hand........... there's that false sense of security.
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klinemj
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Post by klinemj on Mar 17, 2020 16:51:24 GMT -5
I'm not discounting the consequences of under-reporting. However, I've seen many people use under-reporting as an excuse to not pay attention to any data at all (I'm not accusing Scott of that). So many have said "well, the data is under-reported so it doesn't mean anything" or use it to justify that the mortality rate "really isn't that high" (despite growing evidence it is quite high vs. ordinary flu!) Instead, it's important to view all data as something of value - even if there are limits. In the case of how I am looking at the data in the link I provided...I'm looking to see the signs of "flattening the curve". I'm not a medical provider, so I'm in no position to think about how much medical equipment to order if I think my facility will be short. I'm looking in hopes that I'll see signs all the actions we're taking are helping. Simply looking at some fixed number like "x cases and y deaths so far" tells me nothing that I'm interested in. Mark Clarification, are you suggesting a little bit of irony in that the data analyst might not be taking into account how having more than enough Oxygen Ventilators in stock may affect his statistical curve on the death rate? I can definitely see how such data may help whether preparing or treating the virus. no - by my statement about people discounting the data, I'm not referring at all to what a real data analyst might conclude. What I'm saying is that I've seen ordinary people say things like "well, the data isn't right, and I don't think this is as big of a deal as what the data says". To me, those folks are sticking their heads in the sand (ostrich-style) to ignore the real issue that the overwhelming about of data says that COVID-19 is FAR more lethal that the ordinary flu. Have you seen the meme that shows the COVID-19 US Case count and death count to date (which at the time reflected ~1.5 weeks of COVID-19 presence in the US) and compares it to the full year of 2019 flu data? That 1 snapshot of data makes it look like there's low risk. But...real data analysts know better. When countered, those sharing the meme default to "Well, the data is wrong/under-reported, so I'm going to believe all is fine" That's a poor choice... Mark
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klinemj
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Post by klinemj on Mar 17, 2020 16:53:29 GMT -5
I've seen it but I see it in all areas of my personal interests. For example, people theorizing on the origins of the Universe. Scientific methods go flying out the window, that is, observation, repeatability, and testability. And don't even get me started on Macro or Darwinian evolution. Models are created and attempt to explain what nobody observes etc. People with various degrees in unrelated fields are given credence because they are in an area considered "scientific". Narration of stick figures "fossils" are varying but most accepted depending on who has the best looking paper on the wall. Meanwhile, my mother's church are making masks for people. I don't have the heart to tell her that they are ineffective. I figure they are keeping her busy and making her feel as though she and her community are doing something. On the other hand........... there's that false sense of security. You are making my point very well...unless the information is from experts, it's often bogus. It's very rare that I see experts spread bogus info. Mark
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Post by The Mad Norseman on Mar 17, 2020 17:36:24 GMT -5
Sooooo,.....once this thing has settled down, and we known the outcome here and across the world I think every affected nation should send China a BIG FAT BILL! It was their incompetence, secrecy, and neglect that allowed it to spread around the globe and cause so much damage to people and economies. So IMO they need to be held accountable...
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Post by Soup on Mar 17, 2020 17:49:02 GMT -5
You have 0 chance of receiving $ from China for this.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2020 20:11:53 GMT -5
Perhaps someone should start a different thread titled "COVID-19 conspiracy theories and pseudoscience discussion" DYohn, you must be cornfused. That is the exact thread title, shortened to fit. Entire thread title is: Coronavirus preparedness? ... COVID-19 conspiracy theories and pseudoscience discussion.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2020 20:31:14 GMT -5
Well, the Einsteins who never read the article I posted or don't have an open mind to the scientist who ACTUALLY works with the drug may want to watch this
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2020 20:33:32 GMT -5
Perhaps someone should start a different thread titled "COVID-19 conspiracy theories and pseudoscience discussion" That was cute David
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2020 20:41:38 GMT -5
BTW, who the hell mentioned alkaline water??? I NEVER did, nor implied it. Have you ever heard of Cancer Centers of America? May want to look them up and LEARN a little. I'm correct and I KNOW I'm correct about body pH and disease. I know 2 medical doctors- MD & DO who will agree with me and one of the top 25 RNs who has 2 Master Degrees in biology & nursing who tour the USA teaching who agrees with me. I'll believe them before I believe anyone on this forum.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2020 20:42:46 GMT -5
This place is turning cultish
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Post by boomzilla on Mar 17, 2020 21:10:08 GMT -5
Well, the Einsteins who never read the article I posted or don't have an open mind to the scientist who ACTUALLY works with the drug may want to watch this... OK - I watched it. I sure hope the guy is right, but even he admits that a full study is needed before they'll really know. Further, if the claims ARE true, it'll be the first time in history that anything true accidentally escaped Laura Ingraham's mouth (and I mean ANYTHING!!!). Fox News' track record on this Pandemic has been abysmal, and only now are they slowly (very, very slowly) beginning to change their tune. Fox (and particularly Hannity and Ingraham) have variously claimed: That the coronavirus is a total hoax That even if the coronavirus is real, it's no worse than the common cold or flu That the Chinese deliberately engineered this disease and set it loose That the "mainstream press" has grossly sensationalized the virus just to make Trump look bad That the Democrats invented the virus just to make Trump look bad That even if the virus is real, the Democrats want the situation to be as bad as possible so the economy will crash, making Trump look bad That the virus is an excuse to take away freedom and make us all slaves of the "deep State" Etc. There is not an iota of solid proof for ANY of the above claims. Those who believe any part of this nonsense are either criminally stupid or just plain criminal, because repeating such falsehoods prevents many of our citizens from actually doing what is needed to stop this wave of infections. When the virus is tamed, and we have a vaccine, there will be plenty of time to indulge in finger pointing. But for the time being, the CDC is who we need to be believing - not Fox News. Big Badda Boom
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Post by monkumonku on Mar 17, 2020 21:54:46 GMT -5
My two cents, there's plenty of "experts" all over the place. Why, this Lounge is full of them, and many are in this thread! For me, the CDC is the source to go to - eliminate the middle man. When it comes to "experts" there's plenty of them out there and who knows what their motives are for saying what they say. Also, many who are called experts might be such in one field but they are making statements in another. Experts are always coming out of the woodwork. This is not to denigrate the genuine "expert" but these days, who can tell who is genuine, and who isn't putting their own spin on things. I still think people are overreacting in terms of all this panic buying and selfish behavior. As for the virus itself, I'm going by what the CDC says/advises.
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cawgijoe
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Post by cawgijoe on Mar 17, 2020 22:02:53 GMT -5
Well, the Einsteins who never read the article I posted or don't have an open mind to the scientist who ACTUALLY works with the drug may want to watch this... OK - I watched it. I sure hope the guy is right, but even he admits that a full study is needed before they'll really know. Further, if the claims ARE true, it'll be the first time in history that anything true accidentally escaped Laura Ingraham's mouth (and I mean ANYTHING!!!). Fox News' track record on this Pandemic has been abysmal, and only now are they slowly (very, very slowly) beginning to change their tune. Fox (and particularly Hannity and Ingraham) have variously claimed: That the coronavirus is a total hoax That even if the coronavirus is real, it's no worse than the common cold or flu That the Chinese deliberately engineered this disease and set it loose That the "mainstream press" has grossly sensationalized the virus just to make Trump look bad That the Democrats invented the virus just to make Trump look bad That even if the virus is real, the Democrats want the situation to be as bad as possible so the economy will crash, making Trump look bad That the virus is an excuse to take away freedom and make us all slaves of the "deep State" Etc. There is not an iota of solid proof for ANY of the above claims. Those who believe any part of this nonsense are either criminally stupid or just plain criminal, because repeating such falsehoods prevents many of our citizens from actually doing what is needed to stop this wave of infections. When the virus is tamed, and we have a vaccine, there will be plenty of time to indulge in finger pointing. But for the time being, the CDC is who we need to be believing - not Fox News. Big Badda Boom And you think the liberal media doesn’t share the blame? None of them have spouted any real truth. CNN, MSNBC, CBS, etc. continue to push their vile narrative that our President can’t do anything right! It’s complete BS. Of all of them Fox at least attempts to give the other side a voice. This is serious from a health and economic perspective. Unfortunately the media needs to drive the narrative for their ratings. I’m listening to Dr. Fauci. The man is tireless and is telling the truth. Sorry, but not everything is Fox’s or Trumps fault. Apologies for the rant.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2020 22:20:00 GMT -5
Well, the Einsteins who never read the article I posted or don't have an open mind to the scientist who ACTUALLY works with the drug may want to watch this... OK - I watched it. I sure hope the guy is right, but even he admits that a full study is needed before they'll really know. Further, if the claims ARE true, it'll be the first time in history that anything true accidentally escaped Laura Ingraham's mouth (and I mean ANYTHING!!!). Fox News' track record on this Pandemic has been abysmal, and only now are they slowly (very, very slowly) beginning to change their tune. Fox (and particularly Hannity and Ingraham) have variously claimed: That the coronavirus is a total hoax That even if the coronavirus is real, it's no worse than the common cold or flu That the Chinese deliberately engineered this disease and set it loose That the "mainstream press" has grossly sensationalized the virus just to make Trump look bad That the Democrats invented the virus just to make Trump look bad That even if the virus is real, the Democrats want the situation to be as bad as possible so the economy will crash, making Trump look bad That the virus is an excuse to take away freedom and make us all slaves of the "deep State" Etc. There is not an iota of solid proof for ANY of the above claims. Those who believe any part of this nonsense are either criminally stupid or just plain criminal, because repeating such falsehoods prevents many of our citizens from actually doing what is needed to stop this wave of infections. When the virus is tamed, and we have a vaccine, there will be plenty of time to indulge in finger pointing. But for the time being, the CDC is who we need to be believing - not Fox News. Big Badda Boom Dr. SHIVA Ayyadurai - MIT PhD in Biological Engineering:
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2020 22:35:10 GMT -5
Clarification, are you suggesting a little bit of irony in that the data analyst might not be taking into account how having more than enough Oxygen Ventilators in stock may affect his statistical curve on the death rate? I can definitely see how such data may help whether preparing or treating the virus. no - by my statement about people discounting the data, I'm not referring at all to what a real data analyst might conclude. What I'm saying is that I've seen ordinary people say things like "well, the data isn't right, and I don't think this is as big of a deal as what the data says". To me, those folks are sticking their heads in the sand (ostrich-style) to ignore the real issue that the overwhelming about of data says that COVID-19 is FAR more lethal that the ordinary flu. Have you seen the meme that shows the COVID-19 US Case count and death count to date (which at the time reflected ~1.5 weeks of COVID-19 presence in the US) and compares it to the full year of 2019 flu data? That 1 snapshot of data makes it look like there's low risk. But...real data analysts know better. When countered, those sharing the meme default to "Well, the data is wrong/under-reported, so I'm going to believe all is fine" That's a poor choice... Mark Thanks for the clarification bro. The snapshot of data reminds me of Trump's inauguration when various publications took photos of empty areas as though nobody was attending. The pictures were taken before the areas filled out. Just iterating that in all areas these same things take place. We expect more from "professional journalism". The areas of study I've shared of my personal interest are full of bogus information by accredited experts. The only people that seemingly think they themselves are immune to falsehood are those indoctrinated to high degrees and they have the seals of approval on the paper which hang from the wall. Often times a problem is realized when scholars from both sides of the issue can be found. Interestingly, some "schools of thought" are more popular than others. What I think most often happens is that the most accepted positions [given that there are fair amounts of scholars on both sides of the issue] that appeals to what people already want to believe, that is the experts that support the most popular "presuppositions" win. The experts that support the most popular narrative are embraced. Lastly, perhaps you can clarify or address my reservations. When I see certain amounts of data being provided I often think of framed scenarios. What I mean is that sometimes an example is framed in such a way that only limited outcomes are presented. When "crunching data" are there certain questions being asked? And if a new question is asked does that exhibit a flaw in that a void in the preexisting data makes the outcome wrong? For example, we're watching the spread of CV-19. Then the medical system becomes overwhelmed due to the lack of oxygen ventilators. The rate of deaths then pick up or accelerate. If the question is not asked about the threshold of medical supplies or inventory won't CV19 appear more deadly in under equipped areas than more equipped or prepared areas to deal with the virus? If the questions are not asked then data will not follow or exists. That's the framework I'm referring by design which appeals to a certain outcome. If the analyst refuses to address the "question" then how is that not deliberately creating the outcome when the question is made known to them? This all kinda reminds of the "observation effect" in physics. Enjoy, William
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Post by bonscott on Mar 17, 2020 22:59:03 GMT -5
Well, the Einsteins who never read the article I posted or don't have an open mind to the scientist who ACTUALLY works with the drug may want to watch this... OK - I watched it. I sure hope the guy is right, but even he admits that a full study is needed before they'll really know. Further, if the claims ARE true, it'll be the first time in history that anything true accidentally escaped Laura Ingraham's mouth (and I mean ANYTHING!!!). Fox News' track record on this Pandemic has been abysmal, and only now are they slowly (very, very slowly) beginning to change their tune. Fox (and particularly Hannity and Ingraham) have variously claimed: That the coronavirus is a total hoax That even if the coronavirus is real, it's no worse than the common cold or flu That the Chinese deliberately engineered this disease and set it loose That the "mainstream press" has grossly sensationalized the virus just to make Trump look bad That the Democrats invented the virus just to make Trump look bad That even if the virus is real, the Democrats want the situation to be as bad as possible so the economy will crash, making Trump look bad That the virus is an excuse to take away freedom and make us all slaves of the "deep State" Etc. There is not an iota of solid proof for ANY of the above claims. Those who believe any part of this nonsense are either criminally stupid or just plain criminal, because repeating such falsehoods prevents many of our citizens from actually doing what is needed to stop this wave of infections. When the virus is tamed, and we have a vaccine, there will be plenty of time to indulge in finger pointing. But for the time being, the CDC is who we need to be believing - not Fox News. Big Badda Boom You can always watch CNN instead. Breaking News Trump Colluded with Putin to spread the Virus. Anonymous Sources. Global Warming is the cause of the virus. Santa Claus is real. There really is a monster under your bed.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2020 23:44:24 GMT -5
OK - I watched it. I sure hope the guy is right, but even he admits that a full study is needed before they'll really know. Further, if the claims ARE true, it'll be the first time in history that anything true accidentally escaped Laura Ingraham's mouth (and I mean ANYTHING!!!). Fox News' track record on this Pandemic has been abysmal, and only now are they slowly (very, very slowly) beginning to change their tune. Fox (and particularly Hannity and Ingraham) have variously claimed: That the coronavirus is a total hoax That even if the coronavirus is real, it's no worse than the common cold or flu That the Chinese deliberately engineered this disease and set it loose That the "mainstream press" has grossly sensationalized the virus just to make Trump look bad That the Democrats invented the virus just to make Trump look bad That even if the virus is real, the Democrats want the situation to be as bad as possible so the economy will crash, making Trump look bad That the virus is an excuse to take away freedom and make us all slaves of the "deep State" Etc. There is not an iota of solid proof for ANY of the above claims. Those who believe any part of this nonsense are either criminally stupid or just plain criminal, because repeating such falsehoods prevents many of our citizens from actually doing what is needed to stop this wave of infections. When the virus is tamed, and we have a vaccine, there will be plenty of time to indulge in finger pointing. But for the time being, the CDC is who we need to be believing - not Fox News. Big Badda Boom You can always watch CNN instead. Breaking News Trump Colluded with Putin to spread the Virus. Anonymous Sources. Global Warming is the cause of the virus. Santa Claus is real. There really is a monster under your bed. I'm sure CNN doesn't want to talk about things such as building the immune system up and access to sanitary areas such as clean water, air, and food. After all, CNNs political base have the worst environments [next to China] and probably don't want to risk those talking points.
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Post by boomzilla on Mar 18, 2020 0:59:37 GMT -5
Yeah - I get worked up to a rant every now and then also. Apologies. There IS blame enough to go around, but the main point is that there's no time right now to waste on blame. The CDC has said WHAT the problem is (overwhelming the medical system), HOW to deal with it (isolate to flatten the infection curve), and WHY it matters (if you get sick and there are no care facilities or personnel available, you die).
Seems straightforward to me.
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