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Post by simpleman68 on Mar 9, 2020 14:30:14 GMT -5
Well, despite not wanting to do so for political reasons, the World Health Organization today designated COVID-19 a pandemic. And if you think that they’re chicken little... Understood, but do you think they are not connected to any other outside influences? Always good to remember where the money trail flows, particularly research money, grants etc. I'm not a tinfoil hat type of guy and have been working closely with doctors/advisers in and out of Shanghai as we are helping source masks and PPE gear.
But it seems they are making a bigger fuss of this than other diseases which have a substantially higher mortality rate; by at least a factor of 1 from a scientific stand point.
Don't know why, don't care as there is nothing I can do but the inequity strikes me as rather suspect.
Scott
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Post by boomzilla on Mar 9, 2020 15:06:13 GMT -5
I think the concern on this one stems from the lack of ability to test. Without testing kits, the spread through populations is impossible to monitor. There could be far more infected than the WHO knows about, or there could be only the ones detected. I think the former is more likely than the latter, particularly in malnourished populations in close proximity to one another and without routine health care. But without testing, the only way we will know is if the third-world death rates spike. And since statistics are kept only in pro-forma fashion for most third world countries...
Even in Europe, Australia, and the U.S. it seems that we're having problems protecting health care workers (the front line in isolating those infected) and preventing contamination in the most vulnerable populations (nursing homes, cruise ships, hospitals, etc.).
As to the politics of "outside influences" on the WHO, they've been under tremendous pressure, from what I've read, NOT to declare a pandemic. The concern was that a number of negative results would ensue from such a declaration - panic, hoarding, etc.. Their declaration, supposedly, is being made very reluctantly and despite the almost universal outside influences to the contrary.
The biggest concern that I've read is that through normal mutation patterns, a more contagious or more lethal variant will take hold, stymieing efforts to rapidly develop a vaccine. COVID-19 has already demonstrated the hardiness to jump species, the propensity to spread internationally, and the potential to be fatal to not only the weak but also to those who have genetic susceptibilities. Although that is still a small percentage of the total population, if contagion rates increase, or if mutations occur in undesired ways, this could still live up to its hype.
I hope you're right, Scott, and that this is much ado about little. But it's prudent to be prepared just in case.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 9, 2020 16:31:37 GMT -5
There is much we don't know yet. Comments in the press and here seem to frequently chase tails. There is one conclusion that seems easy for me to make. It definitely is a pandemic. I offer two arguments as seen below. #1 ..... Locations with Confirmed COVID-19 Cases, Global Map (dark shading) #2 ..... Locations with Confirmed COVID-19 Cases, by WHO Region Africa
Algeria Cameroon Nigeria Senegal South Africa Togo AmericasArgentina Brazil Canada Chile Colombia Costa Rica Dominican Republic Ecuador French Guiana Guadalupe Martinique Mexico Paraguay Peru United States Eastern MediterraneanAfghanistan Bahrain Egypt Iran Iraq Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Morocco Oman Pakistan Qatar Saudi Arabia Tunisia United Arab Emirates EuropeAlbania Andorra Armenia Austria Azerbaijan Belarus Belgium Bosnia and Herzegovina Bulgaria Croatia Czechia Denmark Estonia Finland France Georgia Germany Gibraltar Greece Holy See (Vatican City) Hungary Iceland Ireland Israel Italy Latvia Liechtenstein Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Moldova Monaco Netherlands North Macedonia Norway Poland Portugal Romania Russia San Marino Serbia Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland Ukraine United Kingdom South-East Asia
Bangladesh Bhutan India Indonesia Maldives Nepal Sri Lanka Thailand Western PacificAustralia Cambodia China Hong Kong Japan Macau Malaysia New Zealand Philippines Republic of Korea Singapore Taiwan Vietnam Coronavirus has infected more than 108,000 114,223 people worldwide and killed more than 3800 4005, according to CNN (update 6pm ET, March 9, 2020).
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Post by DavidR on Mar 9, 2020 17:15:59 GMT -5
Well, despite not wanting to do so for political reasons, the World Health Organization today designated COVID-19 a pandemic. And if you think that they’re chicken little... It's being 'whipped up' to stir emotions and all by design. It's wise to be cautious but dangerous to be scared out of control.
Go hide in your basement if your think it will help. But I bet you don't do all this 5hi7 it for the flu.
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KeithL
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Post by KeithL on Mar 9, 2020 17:33:29 GMT -5
Notwithstanding the scary name... all that word means is that it is "a worldwide epidemic"... Which term rates it right up there with the yearly seasonal Influenza pandemic... And plenty of other diseases...
But, yes, considering that CoVid-19 spreads very easily, and many who catch it never even know they're sick, it seems pretty obvious that it's going to "make the rounds".
However, to put the current numbers for CoVid-19 in perspective...
According to the CDC... here are the estimates for this year's Flu season...(between Oct 1 and Feb 1)... Between 35 and 50 million people in the USA have caught it... Between 350,000 and 620,000 of them were hospitalized... And between 20,000 and 50,000 of them died... (The numbers are so vague because so many people are never diagnosed or reported).
The best GLOBAL estimates suggest that, worldwide, between 250,000 and 500,000 people die from the Flu every year - on average.
And, lest we forget, we actually have a vaccine that is reasonably effective for the Flu. (So, in the greater scheme of things, perhaps CoVid-19 really isn't that big of a deal after all...)
Well, despite not wanting to do so for political reasons, the World Health Organization today designated COVID-19 a pandemic. And if you think that they’re chicken little... It's being 'whipped up' to stir emotions and all by design. It's wise to be cautious but dangerous to be scared out of control.
Go hide in your basement if your think it will help. But I bet you don't do all this 5hi7 it for the flu.
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Post by monkumonku on Mar 9, 2020 18:15:54 GMT -5
If you took the flu and gave it an alternate name and let the media loose on it, and they reported the incidences, number who had contracted it, been hospitalized and had died from it, the reaction would be similar to what we're seeing now with this Corona virus. The media stirs it all up and then people panic, Chicken Little style. People copy other people, be it fads for the latest "in" restaurant, Talking Elmo, or stockpiling things in fear of Armageddon. Then it also makes them feel good to brag to others about their experience at the store and how long they had to wait in line.
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Post by DavidR on Mar 9, 2020 18:41:26 GMT -5
Ever notice how all these viruses come out of/originate in China ?
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Post by 26gary26 on Mar 9, 2020 21:09:08 GMT -5
People here in California are raiding the Costco stores which are completely out of bottled water, toilet paper, paper towels, & sanitary wipes. For days they posted signs only a limit of 2 items per person. Now there completely out.
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Post by boomzilla on Mar 9, 2020 21:56:19 GMT -5
Ever notice how all these viruses come out of/originate in China ? You are correct, sir - but it isn't by military design or by malice. It is because of agriculture. Being a relatively poor country (at least for the majority of residents), animal meat is expensive (both in resources and in literal monetary cost). To minimize the cost of raising animals, a "tiered feeding" method is used. Animals are raised in screened-floor cages with multiple levels. Only the animals on the top are "fed," and those on lower tiers exist on the droppings from above. The typical arrangement is to house pigs on the top tier, chickens in the middle, and anything left over drops into a pond, where fish consume it. Although this is agriculturally efficient, it comes with some side effects. Any virus hardy enough to survive this system can already move "cross-species." And if the virus is robust enough to move from pigs to chickens, it's often but a single mutation away from being robust enough to infect humans (remember the "bird flu?"). So the type of agriculture used (and not only in China) encourages occasional viral outbreaks. Those closest to the source are the least likely to be affected (they've already probably survived multiple other viri...). But as vectors for spread of new viruses, the farmers serve admirably (and probably even without awareness of their roles). The preceding paragraphs are, to the best of my knowledge, factual. The following are my own harebrained theories, and should be taken with huge grains of salt; I'm neither a doctor nor an epidemiologist... It should be to one's benefit to delay exposure to "new" viruses. As the coronavirus moves through populations, it will mutate (100% chance). The mutations, being entirely random, would seem to have but three options: 1. The virus will mutate to become less contagious and/or less lethal 2. The virus will mutate but without changes to transmittance and/or lethality, or 3. The virus will mutate to become more contagious and/or more lethal. The first two of the three options are in our favor if we postpone our exposures. There is also at least some chance that a vaccine may become available prior to us being exposed. That being the case, I'll personally opt to be cautious for a while even if I'm overly so.
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Post by ÈlTwo on Mar 10, 2020 7:39:10 GMT -5
Well, despite not wanting to do so for political reasons, the World Health Organization today designated COVID-19 a pandemic. And if you think that they’re chicken little... Understood, but do you think they are not connected to any other outside influences? Always good to remember where the money trail flows, particularly research money, grants etc. I'm not a tinfoil hat type of guy and have been working closely with doctors/advisers in and out of Shanghai as we are helping source masks and PPE gear.
But it seems they are making a bigger fuss of this than other diseases which have a substantially higher mortality rate; by at least a factor of 1 from a scientific stand point. Don't know why, don't care as there is nothing I can do but the inequity strikes me as rather suspect.
Scott
The reason why is the incubation period; MERS and SARS are HUGELY more fatal, but their incubation period is so short that the host usually died before passing it on to many people. COVID-19 has an exceptionally long incubation period, compared even to current flu strains, so it can be passed quite easily without the carrier being aware. Although the fatality rate is hovering around 3.5% (overall) , that is still more than a factor of 10 higher than the flu. Flu fatality rate is a fraction of a percent, so 34 million cases of the flu in the USA this year, and about 20,000 deaths, which is the norm. If COVID-19 got that widespread it would yield over 1 million deaths. DO NOT PANIC, BUT BE CAREFUL!!!!!!!!! Wash your hands! Do Not touch your eyes, nose or mouth!
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Post by davidl81 on Mar 10, 2020 8:50:57 GMT -5
Understood, but do you think they are not connected to any other outside influences? Always good to remember where the money trail flows, particularly research money, grants etc. I'm not a tinfoil hat type of guy and have been working closely with doctors/advisers in and out of Shanghai as we are helping source masks and PPE gear.
But it seems they are making a bigger fuss of this than other diseases which have a substantially higher mortality rate; by at least a factor of 1 from a scientific stand point. Don't know why, don't care as there is nothing I can do but the inequity strikes me as rather suspect.
Scott
The reason why is the incubation period; MERS and SARS are HUGELY more fatal, but their incubation period is so short that the host usually died before passing it on to many people. COVID-19 has an exceptionally long incubation period, compared even to current flu strains, so it can be passed quite easily without the carrier being aware. Although the fatality rate is hovering around 3.5% (overall) , that is still more than a factor of 10 higher than the flu. Flu fatality rate is a fraction of a percent, so 34 million cases of the flu in the USA this year, and about 20,000 deaths, which is the norm. If COVID-19 got that widespread it would yield over 1 million deaths. DO NOT PANIC, BUT BE CAREFUL!!!!!!!!! Wash your hands! Do Not touch your eyes, nose or mouth! I do think with the CV19 morality rate there are several factors we need to look at. First thing is the WHO thinks that overall cases are being under reported and that many people have gotten it and survived, but those cases have not been factored into the data. Once those cases are added (if ever) they do believe that the mortality rate my go down by around 50%. The second thing is the mortality rate is extremely high with the elderly and the already sick. The risk to the below 65 year old person is very low. The biggest risk to just carrying CV19 and passing it along to an older person. So when we say its 3.5% overall in reality right now it is more like 1.75% and 90% of that is to people who are older. I am not saying that is a good thing, but it does put things into perspective. The highest risk are going to be places where elderly are in close contact with each other. Nursing homes are going to be a major issue since it will spread through that type of environment quickly and it will be very deadly to those patients (see the cases in Washington state where almost all of the US deaths have occurred). The other place with high risk will be cruise ships since once again we have tight quarters so very long periods of time, with a clientele that skews much older than the general population.
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Post by simpleman68 on Mar 10, 2020 10:16:29 GMT -5
Understood, but do you think they are not connected to any other outside influences? Always good to remember where the money trail flows, particularly research money, grants etc. I'm not a tinfoil hat type of guy and have been working closely with doctors/advisers in and out of Shanghai as we are helping source masks and PPE gear.
But it seems they are making a bigger fuss of this than other diseases which have a substantially higher mortality rate; by at least a factor of 1 from a scientific stand point. Don't know why, don't care as there is nothing I can do but the inequity strikes me as rather suspect.
Scott
The reason why is the incubation period; MERS and SARS are HUGELY more fatal, but their incubation period is so short that the host usually died before passing it on to many people. COVID-19 has an exceptionally long incubation period, compared even to current flu strains, so it can be passed quite easily without the carrier being aware. Although the fatality rate is hovering around 3.5% (overall) , that is still more than a factor of 10 higher than the flu. Flu fatality rate is a fraction of a percent, so 34 million cases of the flu in the USA this year, and about 20,000 deaths, which is the norm. If COVID-19 got that widespread it would yield over 1 million deaths. DO NOT PANIC, BUT BE CAREFUL!!!!!!!!! Wash your hands! Do Not touch your eyes, nose or mouth! Agreed with all except the mortality rates. The doctors and virologists we've worked with since it broke have mirrored what david said in that it is being hugely under reported because so many folks report very mild symptoms with most fevers lasting 1.5 days. They told me the incubation period was 14 days back in January. At that point they were very worried about the implications but today they are not.
Their consensus is that people, particularly the under 55 age range, are recovering from it without ever knowing they had it.
It's a lot of information and many variables but I trust what our guys in China are relaying since they are at ground zero. They are very motivated to pass on very up to date information as we are making very large purchases of PPE gear for them. It would actually benefit them to exaggerate the effects as they would have access to more gear and their suppliers would benefit from profits. Scott
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Post by ÈlTwo on Mar 10, 2020 10:43:46 GMT -5
In order for the mortality rate to be near the regular flu, the number of cases in China would have to be over 2.5 million instead of 80,000+. While possible, that difference in rate seems unlikely.
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Post by Cogito on Mar 10, 2020 18:40:10 GMT -5
Viruses lives matter!
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Post by Deleted on Mar 10, 2020 20:42:04 GMT -5
Many of the world's renowned epidemiologists posted above about COVID-19:
..... isn't that big of a deal ..... way over hyped ..... virus fear .....a bigger fuss ..... where the money trail flows ..... harebrained theories ..... have a drink ..... media stirs it all up ..... people panic ..... Chicken Little ..... scared out of control ..... another Chuck ..... hide in your basement ..... three old white men ..... whipped up ..... stir emotions ..... outside influences ..... old sick people ..... logic is flawed ..... die happy ..... sterilize your throat ..... zombies ..... created it in a lab ..... insidious and dangerous ..... I’m now prepared ..... The Nut .....
Victoria Mather says these Lizards are five clicks up from trailer trash!
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Post by 405x5 on Mar 10, 2020 20:50:03 GMT -5
I always wanted to dress up as “The Punisher” so I got my chance. Makes a better mask 😷 than the one from the drug store Bill
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Post by boomzilla on Mar 10, 2020 21:13:37 GMT -5
Many of the world's renowned epidemiologists posted above about COVID-19: ..... isn't that big of a deal ..... way over hyped ..... virus fear .....a bigger fuss ..... where the money trail flows ..... harebrained theories ..... have a drink ..... media stirs it all up ..... people panic ..... Chicken Little ..... scared out of control ..... another Chuck ..... hide in your basement ..... three old white men ..... whipped up ..... stir emotions ..... outside influences ..... old sick people ..... logic is flawed ..... die happy ..... sterilize your throat ..... zombies ..... created it in a lab ..... insidious and dangerous ..... I’m now prepared ..... The Nut .....
Victoria Mather says these Lizards are five clicks up from trailer trash!A diversity of opinion illuminates civilized discourse. That said, one is always entitled to their own opinion, but never to their own facts. The jury is still out on the ultimate severity of COVID-19, but the bulk of scientific evidence indicates that it will get worse before it gets better. Whether that "worse" is to be elsewhere or here also remains to be seen. And with the scientific community issuing one viewpoint, the government another, and the press still another, it is understandable that even well-informed and well-meaning citizens are not yet sure what to think. Victoria Mather is being overly harsh.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 10, 2020 23:12:24 GMT -5
You thought I was all serious? My post was sprinkled with some silly Chinese Rushin British dry humor. The Victoria Mather video had my wife and me ROLFL with Mather's classless/rude way over the top comment about Meghan (who we don't really like that much). I knew I had to use it in a post. Bingo. That was the frosting on the cake of my post. Glen, get a SOH!
On the serious side for a second. The scientific community, government/CDC, President Trump, LeBron James and the serious press (F0X News) all agree that this is a serious pandemic (worldwide) novel Coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, with very significant differences than the yearly influenza. The US is taking many appropriate measures to hopefully prevent this from becoming bigger than it already is.
Zàijiàn CharlesNut
BTW: I have now added five clicks up from trailer trash to my bag of stupid funnies.
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KeithL
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Post by KeithL on Mar 11, 2020 8:53:28 GMT -5
The government, as usual, is stuck in an impossible situation, between Scylla and Charybdis... On the one hand they need to avoid panic by overstating the situation... But, on the other hand, they can't risk being accused of underestimating the risk... especially if it gets worse...
If they they impose a quarantine they're "trashing people's civil rights"... If they don't then they're "failing to take the situation seriously"... And, whatever happens, any economic impact will be their fault (either for causing it or for failing to minimize it)...
I might even suggest a third "monster in the pool" and that is how the public perceives the attitudes of politicians...
A scientist can say "we got off easy because only 10,000 people died" but, to a politician, seeming callous about a single death is a career hazard. And, of course, a politician can never say "we just don't know and I have no idea what to do about it"...
Also, incidentally, according to several reports I've seen, if the virus mutates, it is quite likely to mutate into a LESS deadly strain...
(A virus that infects everyone, but doesn't make anyone very sick, and so gets spread widely, is "more successful" than one that kills its hosts or ends up getting them quarantined.)
Sadly, for most of the press, scary sells... and that overrides any and all other concerns... Many of the world's renowned epidemiologists posted above about COVID-19: ..... isn't that big of a deal ..... way over hyped ..... virus fear .....a bigger fuss ..... where the money trail flows ..... harebrained theories ..... have a drink ..... media stirs it all up ..... people panic ..... Chicken Little ..... scared out of control ..... another Chuck ..... hide in your basement ..... three old white men ..... whipped up ..... stir emotions ..... outside influences ..... old sick people ..... logic is flawed ..... die happy ..... sterilize your throat ..... zombies ..... created it in a lab ..... insidious and dangerous ..... I’m now prepared ..... The Nut .....
Victoria Mather says these Lizards are five clicks up from trailer trash!A diversity of opinion illuminates civilized discourse. That said, one is always entitled to their own opinion, but never to their own facts. The jury is still out on the ultimate severity of COVID-19, but the bulk of scientific evidence indicates that it will get worse before it gets better. Whether that "worse" is to be elsewhere or here also remains to be seen. And with the scientific community issuing one viewpoint, the government another, and the press still another, it is understandable that even well-informed and well-meaning citizens are not yet sure what to think. Victoria Mather is being overly harsh.
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Post by boomzilla on Mar 11, 2020 9:02:23 GMT -5
I just read that one N.Y. company (Regeneron?) is infecting mice with a non-reproducing strain of COVID-19, and then modifying the resulting antibodies to function in humans. Not sure if it will work or not, but at least they're trying. My daughter in Boston says a recent convention held there caused numerous cases in not only attendees but also in hotel workers, restaurant workers, other guests, and cab drivers. The infected are now filing suit against the organization that held the conference. News of the world...
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