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Post by leonski on Aug 7, 2021 16:45:31 GMT -5
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novisnick
EmoPhile
CEO Secret Monoblock Society
Posts: 27,230 
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Post by novisnick on Aug 7, 2021 16:52:31 GMT -5
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Post by 405x5 on Aug 8, 2021 7:42:54 GMT -5
WOW 😮
Fearing the worst, my wife and I ran to Walmart and bought out ALL the toilet 🚽 paper
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Post by DavidR on Aug 8, 2021 15:09:44 GMT -5
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Post by leonski on Aug 8, 2021 18:34:23 GMT -5
LOTS of that 'Unavailable' going around. Supplies are tight. If I thouht I would need output tubes.....in the next year? I'd have a set on hand NOW ... |
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Post by LuisV on Aug 8, 2021 20:38:32 GMT -5
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Post by leonski on Aug 8, 2021 20:53:35 GMT -5
The 6SN7 is what I see for the 'octal' board, optional for the VTA amps.....ST70 and ST120
That's LIFETIME supply.....
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KeithL
Administrator 
Posts: 9,961
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Post by KeithL on Aug 9, 2021 8:44:28 GMT -5
That very statement is a contradiction of sorts...
If there really was THAT MUCH demand then someone would set up a new factory.
The last time I heard there were still one or two factories producing tubes... And I assume that, as long as they continue to be able to make a profit, they will continue to do so...
However, do bear in mind that, as the overall demand declines, so too do the economies of scale... (Whatever it costs to run a factory is going to end up being divided amongst however many people continue to buy the product.)
At one point in history there were a LOT of tubes in the world... And there are still quite a few of them left in various places... You're simply seeing the law of supply and demand set a new equilibrium price on those that remain and those that are still being produced.
Let me know when you're willing to order 10,000 6SN7 tubes - at $500 each - and we can look into finding financing for a nice shiny new factory to produce them. (That sounds like an excellent opportunity for a Kickstarter project to me...)
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Post by DavidR on Aug 9, 2021 10:32:29 GMT -5
I bet those Raytheons sound sweet |
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Post by 405x5 on Aug 9, 2021 11:08:53 GMT -5
If only we could get solid state rolling to catch up to tube rolling it would balance the marketplace and increase the demand for tubes
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Post by LuisV on Aug 9, 2021 11:13:59 GMT -5
I bet those Raytheons sound sweet Extremely happy with them and the Sylvania tubes... |
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Post by LuisV on Aug 9, 2021 11:21:14 GMT -5
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Post by 405x5 on Aug 9, 2021 11:29:42 GMT -5
LOL! The last thing on the face of this Earth 🌎 I expected was for someone to take me seriously!  |
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Post by LuisV on Aug 9, 2021 11:42:07 GMT -5
Ha... too funny.  |
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Post by leonski on Aug 9, 2021 14:46:34 GMT -5
That very statement is a contradiction of sorts...
If there really was THAT MUCH demand then someone would set up a new factory.
The last time I heard there were still one or two factories producing tubes... And I assume that, as long as they continue to be able to make a profit, they will continue to do so...
However, do bear in mind that, as the overall demand declines, so too do the economies of scale... (Whatever it costs to run a factory is going to end up being divided amongst however many people continue to buy the product.)
At one point in history there were a LOT of tubes in the world... And there are still quite a few of them left in various places... You're simply seeing the law of supply and demand set a new equilibrium price on those that remain and those that are still being produced.
Let me know when you're willing to order 10,000 6SN7 tubes - at $500 each - and we can look into finding financing for a nice shiny new factory to produce them. (That sounds like an excellent opportunity for a Kickstarter project to me...)
You make a good point.....and makes me wonder just HOW MANY tubes are sold annually and if that number is going UP or DOWN or staying 'FLAT'? If there is NO MONEY to be made, the investment money will migrate elsewhere. Maybe back to cassettes or vinyl? |
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Post by DavidR on Aug 9, 2021 14:52:53 GMT -5
You make a good point.....and makes me wonder just HOW MANY tubes are sold annually and if that number is going UP or DOWN or staying 'FLAT'? If there is NO MONEY to be made, the investment money will migrate elsewhere. Maybe back to cassettes or vinyl? Russia never stopped using vacuum tubes. |
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Post by 405x5 on Aug 9, 2021 14:57:34 GMT -5
A resurgence of 140 degree cassettes on the dashboard and in the glovebox would be nice
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Post by leonski on Aug 9, 2021 14:59:58 GMT -5
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KeithL
Administrator
Posts: 9,961
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Post by KeithL on Aug 9, 2021 15:02:30 GMT -5
Or maybe forward - to digital technologies that actually work - and sound - better. As far as I'm concerned, if anyone wants to go back to cassette, they might as well go back to papyrus and clay tablets... (And, as everyone here knows by now, I'm willing to consider the possibility that vinyl can avoid being audibly worse than good quality digital, but I don't think it has any chance whatsoever of being better.
At the very least, now that bandwidth and storage are both so cheap, I'd like to see more streaming services offering "CD quality and better".... There is no longer any need to save bandwidth or space with compromise technologies like MP3 and AAC...
I just bought a pocket sized 512 gB SSD drive for $74.99 That could hold a LOT of albums at 24/96k
That very statement is a contradiction of sorts...
If there really was THAT MUCH demand then someone would set up a new factory. The last time I heard there were still one or two factories producing tubes... And I assume that, as long as they continue to be able to make a profit, they will continue to do so...
However, do bear in mind that, as the overall demand declines, so too do the economies of scale... (Whatever it costs to run a factory is going to end up being divided amongst however many people continue to buy the product.) At one point in history there were a LOT of tubes in the world... And there are still quite a few of them left in various places... You're simply seeing the law of supply and demand set a new equilibrium price on those that remain and those that are still being produced. Let me know when you're willing to order 10,000 6SN7 tubes - at $500 each - and we can look into finding financing for a nice shiny new factory to produce them. (That sounds like an excellent opportunity for a Kickstarter project to me...)
You make a good point.....and makes me wonder just HOW MANY tubes are sold annually and if that number is going UP or DOWN or staying 'FLAT'? If there is NO MONEY to be made, the investment money will migrate elsewhere. Maybe back to cassettes or vinyl? |
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KeithL
Administrator
Posts: 9,961
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Post by KeithL on Aug 9, 2021 15:25:51 GMT -5
You really need to look at a slightly different question... My guess is that the money will continue to move to streaming content and new ways of monetizing content... like "live-streamed pay-per-view events"...
(I hear Netflix is getting plenty of financing... at least so far.)
One magazine last year estimated that about half of the vinyl albums sold in that year were never played...
(The idea was that they were either displayed on a wall, put on a shelf where they look cool, given to people who think they're cool, or otherwise "collected".)
With something like tubes there are many aspects that complicate concepts like "supply and demand"...
It would be really interesting to know how many tubes are being put into amplifiers and preamps which are in turn actually being listened to...
- how many people are purchasing tubes to USE today? - how many people are purchasing multiple sets as "spares"? - how many people are purchasing extra tubes so they can "tube roll" (and how many of those extras end up in a drawer or back on eBay)?
- how many people are purchasing them as "investments" (buying spares with at least an eye towards reselling them)? - how much of the current supply is being "sucked up" or "sat on" by STORES or RESELLERS as potential investment?
When you look at these factor together they can produce some really interesting outcomes... For example, initially, when there is a "threat of short supply", people buy up and stockpile things, which pushes the price up... Then, if either more supplies become available, or it begins to appear that the demand may start to decline, they may "dump their stock", at which point the price artificially collapses...
You may not remember the times when tube equipment, and boxes of vinyl albums, ended up at the dump because nobody wanted them... Or the time when silver topped $50 per ounce... and people thought that gold would top $2000 soon...
And you might want to check out the market prices for VHS tape and DVD players today... And it's going to be very interesting to see what happens in a few years with used CDs... AT THE MOMENT there are far more used CDs than people who want them... but that could change...
That very statement is a contradiction of sorts...
If there really was THAT MUCH demand then someone would set up a new factory. The last time I heard there were still one or two factories producing tubes... And I assume that, as long as they continue to be able to make a profit, they will continue to do so...
However, do bear in mind that, as the overall demand declines, so too do the economies of scale... (Whatever it costs to run a factory is going to end up being divided amongst however many people continue to buy the product.) At one point in history there were a LOT of tubes in the world... And there are still quite a few of them left in various places... You're simply seeing the law of supply and demand set a new equilibrium price on those that remain and those that are still being produced. Let me know when you're willing to order 10,000 6SN7 tubes - at $500 each - and we can look into finding financing for a nice shiny new factory to produce them. (That sounds like an excellent opportunity for a Kickstarter project to me...)
You make a good point.....and makes me wonder just HOW MANY tubes are sold annually and if that number is going UP or DOWN or staying 'FLAT'? If there is NO MONEY to be made, the investment money will migrate elsewhere. Maybe back to cassettes or vinyl? |
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