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Post by Porscheguy on Aug 7, 2013 15:58:04 GMT -5
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Post by dust770 on Aug 7, 2013 16:41:08 GMT -5
This is good news! As long as sales are up the whole effort to move to all things digital download will be slowed. I much prefer physical media, I don't have much interest in trying to store all my blu-rays on, what would require a 10 terabyte hard drive as of now. In 10 yrs who knows what size it would take? 4k anyone? How much memory would a 4k movie require? Long live blu-ray!
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Post by Porscheguy on Aug 7, 2013 16:52:10 GMT -5
Well sales are up for BR, but digital media as whole is down 5%. So more people are buying BR's but far fewer are buying DVD's. Its on the last page of the report...
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Post by Andrew Robinson on Aug 7, 2013 16:58:20 GMT -5
Up double digits compared to what? Compared to Blu-ray sales historically? If that is the case then it's still FAR behind DVD sales. I'm sorry, but Blu-ray is mildly better than a "fringe" format at best with roughly 25 to 30% market share (depending on who you believe). At best that is 30% in what 7 -10 years? DVD still eats its lunch and dinner -though admittedly it (DVD) is decreasing, which in turn pads Blu-ray's numbers. I'm not saying that Streaming bests physical media sales -it doesn't. But physical media can bang on the drum of "success" all they want, trumpeting single and low double digit gains over a 10 year period when streaming is catching up at the rate in which it is, it makes any "success" on physical media's behalf look rather hollow. If it took Blu-ray nearly 10 years to get to 25% market penetration and it takes streaming 3 or 4 what does that tell you about where the market is truly headed?
Also, with regards to file size, everyone is looking at the issue of UltraHD/4K wrong. Just because a film is going to be released in 4K doesn't mean it will automatically be THAT much larger. The whole point of compression is to fit as good an image into as small a space. Trust me, they're not going to stop until they can stream that content, which means you're likely going to get 4K content that isn't much larger or more taxing than today's HD stuff. Now, before you go rolling your eyes and trying to force yourself to throw up at that thought, understand that we're not getting, nor have we ever gotten TRUE HD content. Blu-ray is NOT HD, it is a bastardization of SD but with more pixels, and the same is going to be true for UltraHD/4K. Cling to your physical media all you want and believe it to be infallible, but neither it nor streaming have been about quality. It's about sales. It's about business.
Blu-ray wasn't created because a bunch of videophiles got together and said, we need a format for "us guys." It exists to sell, nothing more, nothing less. Streaming is the next chapter and because it gives the powers that be more control, believe me, they're going to want it to succeed.
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Post by dust770 on Aug 7, 2013 16:59:49 GMT -5
I like seeing that DVD sales are going down, I'm suprised DVD has hung on so long. I wonder if they consider that(at least in my humble opinion) hollywood hasn't released much worth owning in the last year. This of course could be the overall downward trend. My movie minded buddies and I have had many conversations as of late as to how there hasnt been anything much worth even renting this year.
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Post by dust770 on Aug 7, 2013 17:09:33 GMT -5
Up double digits compared to what? Compared to Blu-ray sales historically? If that is the case then it's still FAR behind DVD sales. I'm sorry, but Blu-ray is mildly better than a "fringe" format at best with roughly 25 to 30% market share (depending on who you believe). At best that is 30% in what 7 -10 years? DVD still eats its lunch and dinner -though admittedly it (DVD) is decreasing, which in turn pads Blu-ray's numbers. I'm not saying that Streaming bests physical media sales -it doesn't. But physical media can bang on the drum of "success" all they want, trumpeting single and low double digit gains over a 10 year period when streaming is catching up at the rate in which it is, it makes any "success" on physical media's behalf look rather hollow. If it took Blu-ray nearly 10 years to get to 25% market penetration and it takes streaming 3 or 4 what does that tell you about where the market is truly headed? Also, with regards to file size, everyone is looking at the issue of UltraHD/4K wrong. Just because a film is going to be released in 4K doesn't mean it will automatically be THAT much larger. The whole point of compression is to fit as good an image into as small a space. Trust me, they're not going to stop until they can stream that content, which means you're likely going to get 4K content that isn't much larger or more taxing than today's HD stuff. Now, before you go rolling your eyes and trying to force yourself to throw up at that thought, understand that we're not getting, nor have we ever gotten TRUE HD content. Blu-ray is NOT HD, it is a bastardization of SD but with more pixels, and the same is going to be true for UltraHD/4K. Cling to your physical media all you want and believe it to be infallible, but neither it nor streaming have been about quality. It's about sales. It's about business. Blu-ray wasn't created because a bunch of videophiles got together and said, we need a format for "us guys." It exists to sell, nothing more, nothing less. Streaming is the next chapter and because it gives the powers that be more control, believe me, they're going to want it to succeed. I agree on this completely, that it's moving towards streaming. However I much prefer Blu rays because the internet in my area is seriously lacking. At the speeds I get streaming PQ looks good but it's seriously flat in the sound department. I don't see my area catching up anytime soon so Blu-ray is the obvious choice for me as sound has always been my passion over PQ. Who know where we will be in ten yrs? Hell as long as people keep buying them, DVD's may still be around, as you said it's a business. |
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DYohn
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Post by DYohn on Aug 7, 2013 17:50:14 GMT -5
Household penetration of Blu Ray players is still about half the penetration of HDTV displays, but I'd hardly call 60 million households a niche market. Or if that's a niche, that's a niche I'd like to own.  |
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Post by Porscheguy on Aug 7, 2013 18:10:24 GMT -5
Up double digits compared to what? Compared to Blu-ray sales historically? If that is the case then it's still FAR behind DVD sales. I'm sorry, but Blu-ray is mildly better than a "fringe" format at best with roughly 25 to 30% market share (depending on who you believe). At best that is 30% in what 7 -10 years? DVD still eats its lunch and dinner -though admittedly it (DVD) is decreasing, which in turn pads Blu-ray's numbers. I'm not saying that Streaming bests physical media sales -it doesn't. But physical media can bang on the drum of "success" all they want, trumpeting single and low double digit gains over a 10 year period when streaming is catching up at the rate in which it is, it makes any "success" on physical media's behalf look rather hollow. If it took Blu-ray nearly 10 years to get to 25% market penetration and it takes streaming 3 or 4 what does that tell you about where the market is truly headed? Also, with regards to file size, everyone is looking at the issue of UltraHD/4K wrong. Just because a film is going to be released in 4K doesn't mean it will automatically be THAT much larger. The whole point of compression is to fit as good an image into as small a space. Trust me, they're not going to stop until they can stream that content, which means you're likely going to get 4K content that isn't much larger or more taxing than today's HD stuff. Now, before you go rolling your eyes and trying to force yourself to throw up at that thought, understand that we're not getting, nor have we ever gotten TRUE HD content. Blu-ray is NOT HD, it is a bastardization of SD but with more pixels, and the same is going to be true for UltraHD/4K. Cling to your physical media all you want and believe it to be infallible, but neither it nor streaming have been about quality. It's about sales. It's about business. Blu-ray wasn't created because a bunch of videophiles got together and said, we need a format for "us guys." It exists to sell, nothing more, nothing less. Streaming is the next chapter and because it gives the powers that be more control, believe me, they're going to want it to succeed. Hey, I just provided a link to the report. Those are someone else's facts or assumptions. You sound all PO'd..... |
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Post by Andrew Robinson on Aug 7, 2013 18:17:14 GMT -5
Household penetration of Blu Ray players is still about half the penetration of HDTV displays, but I'd hardly call 60 million households a niche market. Or if that's a niche, that's a niche I'd like to own. 2/3 of US households own a single HDTV (according to a recent survey in Washington Business Journal), so that is approximately 77 million homes (114,800,000 households in US 2010 (US Census) x .67 = 77 million). HDTVs are the third most used CE device between PCs and DVD players. For the record, PCs enjoy 86% market penetration with DVDs falling somewhere around 80%. So if it's half of HDTV, that would put Blu-ray's numbers at around 38.5 million, not 60. Also, Blu-ray's numbers are dramatically padded by the presence of gaming consoles such as the PS3 (don't think that was an accident), which may not contribute to actual Blu-ray adoption. |
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Post by Andrew Robinson on Aug 7, 2013 18:19:41 GMT -5
Hey, I just provided a link to the report. Those are someone else's facts or assumptions. You sound all PO'd..... Oh Ed, I'm not miffed or anything, just trying to help put things in perspective for people. I deal with filmmakers and would be producers alike all feeding me numbers for why they should or shouldn't do things within the business and I've just gotten in the habit of trying to look at things rationally. If it came across like I was upset my apologies, I wasn't. |
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Post by thepcguy on Aug 7, 2013 18:28:01 GMT -5
Up double digits compared to what? Compared to Blu-ray sales historically? If that is the case then it's still FAR behind DVD sales. I'm sorry, but Blu-ray is mildly better than a "fringe" format at best with roughly 25 to 30% market share (depending on who you believe). At best that is 30% in what 7 -10 years? DVD still eats its lunch and dinner -though admittedly it (DVD) is decreasing, which in turn pads Blu-ray's numbers. I'm not saying that Streaming bests physical media sales -it doesn't. But physical media can bang on the drum of "success" all they want, trumpeting single and low double digit gains over a 10 year period when streaming is catching up at the rate in which it is, it makes any "success" on physical media's behalf look rather hollow. If it took Blu-ray nearly 10 years to get to 25% market penetration and it takes streaming 3 or 4 what does that tell you about where the market is truly headed? Also, with regards to file size, everyone is looking at the issue of UltraHD/4K wrong. Just because a film is going to be released in 4K doesn't mean it will automatically be THAT much larger. The whole point of compression is to fit as good an image into as small a space. Trust me, they're not going to stop until they can stream that content, which means you're likely going to get 4K content that isn't much larger or more taxing than today's HD stuff. Now, before you go rolling your eyes and trying to force yourself to throw up at that thought, understand that we're not getting, nor have we ever gotten TRUE HD content. Blu-ray is NOT HD, it is a bastardization of SD but with more pixels, and the same is going to be true for UltraHD/4K. Cling to your physical media all you want and believe it to be infallible, but neither it nor streaming have been about quality. It's about sales. It's about business. Blu-ray wasn't created because a bunch of videophiles got together and said, we need a format for "us guys." It exists to sell, nothing more, nothing less. Streaming is the next chapter and because it gives the powers that be more control, believe me, they're going to want it to succeed.  ?? It's just a link. The OP didn't even share his 2 cents. They're always after our money of course. The cheapest route: DVDs - $5 Blu-Rays - $8 Netflix - FREE (sharing Nephew's account) Go figure. |
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Post by Porscheguy on Aug 7, 2013 18:29:30 GMT -5
Hey, I just provided a link to the report. Those are someone else's facts or assumptions. You sound all PO'd..... Oh Ed, I'm not miffed or anything, just trying to help put things in perspective for people. I deal with filmmakers and would be producers alike all feeding me numbers for why they should or shouldn't do things within the business and I've just gotten in the habit of trying to look at things rationally. If it came across like I was upset my apologies, I wasn't. Well I agree that like it or not, streaming will be a reality someday. All this technology just keeps evolving and may never stop doing so. I was flying one day and sitting next to me was some big deal from Intel. After a few (bottles) of wine he fessed up that the clock speeds of the chips they make are "slowly released" in timed life cycles so every 14-18 months the newer faster computer will hit the street and that it was planned obsolescence. That drove a whole new sales cycle for the consumer and so it goes. Of course clock speeds and dual core, quad core tech has slowed down.... at least for now. It's going to be sometime before there is streaming HD-like content IMHO.. |
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DYohn
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Post by DYohn on Aug 7, 2013 18:48:37 GMT -5
The CEA estimates HDTV penetration at 68% of 120 million households, so I suppose the actual number is less than my estimate. Regardless. the undeniable fact is that BRD sales are up while DVD sales are down, and streaming media content is also up and may replace them both someday - for those households with broadband internet access, that is. And so what if the blu ray penetration includes PS3 devices (if it does)? Can those machines not play back BRDs? |
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DYohn
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Post by DYohn on Aug 7, 2013 20:42:38 GMT -5
It's going to be sometime before there is streaming HD-like content IMHO.. I watch streaming HD content all the time via Netflix and Amazon... |
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Post by Gary Cook on Aug 7, 2013 22:16:02 GMT -5
It's been a while since we had decent debate (emphasis on the "decent" in all meanings).
I place no reliance whatsoever on the "increase in streaming" statistics versus bluray as an indicator of future direction. Streaming statistics will hit the wall when the number of "enthusiasts" is reached. Whereas bluray has full market appeal and as a result will only hit the wall when the market is saturated. As their inexpensive DVD players start to fail the non enthusiasts (the vast majority of the world) will simply move to inexpensive bluray players. They can keep and still watch their DVD's and play their CD's.
Until streaming technology in software and hardware moves out of the realm of the enthusiast and into basic, one button, one box, one format simplicity blurays have far more sales potential. Even then this is assuming that the problems of bandwidth and file size are overcome with uniform solutions. It's a stone cold market killer when the great unwashed are faced with multiple choices of competing incompatible hardware and software. They simply sit on their wallets and don't buy anything.
This is not situation we have as yet even reached, the vast majority have no idea about streaming at all.
Cheers
Gary
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Post by jdskycaster on Aug 7, 2013 22:42:06 GMT -5
Interesting to me is that the debate is always physical media vs. streaming. Dammit! Why can't we have both? Streaming continues to gain traction and odds are will dominate at some future point in time, but will the market for physical media really dry up anytime soon? My employer continues to manufacture and sell PC's. For what seems like at least a decade now the analysts have predicted the PC's demise but every time I check, the factory continues to churn out thousands of them EVERY SINGLE DAY. I love my smart phone. I love my tablet. I also love the four laptops, three desktops and two HTPC's running in my home. Would I ditch the PC's for just the phone and tablet? No way, never. Each provides their own unique contribution to my daily life. I guess the short answer is that I want choice.
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Post by Andrew Robinson on Aug 7, 2013 22:48:29 GMT -5
It's been a while since we had decent debate (emphasis on the "decent" in all meanings). I place no reliance whatsoever on the "increase in streaming" statistics versus bluray as an indicator of future direction. Streaming statistics will hit the wall when the number of "enthusiasts" is reached. Whereas bluray has full market appeal and as a result will only hit the wall when the market is saturated. As their inexpensive DVD players start to fail the non enthusiasts (the vast majority of the world) will simply move to inexpensive bluray players. They can keep and still watch their DVD's and play their CD's. Until streaming technology in software and hardware moves out of the realm of the enthusiast and into basic, one button, one box, one format simplicity blurays have far more sales potential. Even then this is assuming that the problems of bandwidth and file size are overcome with uniform solutions. It's a stone cold market killer when the great unwashed are faced with multiple choices of competing incompatible hardware and software. They simply sit on their wallets and don't buy anything. This is not situation we have as yet even reached, the vast majority have no idea about streaming at all. Cheers Gary I would agree with you on many of your above points, however, one demographic that people in our hobby fail to recognize are people like my brothers, who despite growing up in an age of discs, have almost zero collections because they've ripped 'em all to hard drives and have since sold the originals to 2nd hand stores/services. My brother, who is 22, lives for music, but I don't believe he has a single CD. He might have a handful of DVDs and two or three Blu-rays, but that doesn't mean he doesn't watch movies like a fiend -he does. My 3rd brother, 17, even worse. While we're all likely to buy another disc player or nine, we're not the ones business are focusing on long term, more over our numbers are dwindling -not growing. This is why I put such an emphasis on streaming. Not because I hold some sort of personal vendetta against discs -they've been nothing but good to me -but because in order to stay relevant you must be thinking three if not five steps ahead. |
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Post by Andrew Robinson on Aug 7, 2013 22:50:11 GMT -5
It's going to be sometime before there is streaming HD-like content IMHO.. I watch streaming HD content all the time via Netflix and Amazon... Dyohn and I are going to agree today. I too stream HD content all the time. I prefer Vudu myself, but Netflix is a close second. And yes, they are HD, for if Blu-ray is the "standard" then the only thing that makes something HD or not HD is pixels and, well, Netflix streaming, Amazon VOD, Vudu etc. are all HD. Just so we're clear  . |
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Post by dust770 on Aug 7, 2013 22:59:34 GMT -5
Andrew what is your feeling on the difference between the audio tracks on streaming vs blu ray? I agree that picture quality is a close contest on both, however the sound has some catching up to do on streaming. Keeping in mind I, as well as many in the internet world are limited. The best speeds I can get are 10 down 2 up on a good day. You seemed passionate about the pixels being a bastardization of SD. Could you maybe elaborate on that? What would true HD be? Is 4k just going to be a bastardization of so called current HD formats? Just wondering if there's more to be learned here.
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Post by Gary Cook on Aug 7, 2013 23:40:13 GMT -5
I would agree with you on many of your above points, however, one demographic that people in our hobby fail to recognize are people like my brothers, who despite growing up in an age of discs, have almost zero collections because they've ripped 'em all to hard drives and have since sold the originals to 2nd hand stores/services. My brother, who is 22, lives for music, but I don't believe he has a single CD. He might have a handful of DVDs and two or three Blu-rays, but that doesn't mean he doesn't watch movies like a fiend -he does. My 3rd brother, 17, even worse. While we're all likely to buy another disc player or nine, we're not the ones business are focusing on long term, more over our numbers are dwindling -not growing. This is why I put such an emphasis on streaming. Not because I hold some sort of personal vendetta against discs -they've been nothing but good to me -but because in order to stay relevant you must be thinking three if not five steps ahead. I think we all have similar examples, my son (a graphic artist) has accumulated over 1,000 cd's and yet hasn't bought one for the last 5 years. My daughter (a theatre director) has a vast musical collection, with over 90% being streamed. She does have a lot of DVD's and BD's though, both private and professional. I'd consider them enthusiasts of the appropriate generation. Their current and immediate future problems are access and speed. The access issue is that they live with their multiple Mac laptops, can't work without them. So they barely have time stationary for downloading music let alone huge HD files of video and audio. Then there is the speed problem, my son recently moved from one apartment to another and lost ~50% of his internet speed. In that sized building it will be years until the hardware catches up, wifi notwithstanding. As for relevance, I guess streaming will become relevant for me when just as I settle on hardware/software/format I don't get told to wait till next week/month/year as there is something far better just around the corner. I liken it to trying to jump onto multiple moving trains that are randomly changes tracks (sic). Cheers Gary |
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