LCSeminole
Global Moderator 
Res firma mitescere nescit.
Posts: 20,849
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Post by LCSeminole on Aug 27, 2023 11:14:24 GMT -5
Sooooooooooooo, I actually prepared an evacuation bag(first since Hurricane Michael) last night, as the major models have been flip-flopping which way Tropical Cyclone "Idalia" will be going. They are all in agreement that this will be a FAST mover, but being approximately three days out(Wednesday AM), I am taking this one WAY seriously. If you are in the Florida Big Bend area(those of you in the Tampa area should be paying close attention as well, remember Ian last year? ), as well as Georgia/South Carolina, I hope this gets your attention, as I've been following this possibility the past week. Sources: www.tropicaltidbits.com : this site is great for following all of the major models and their ensemble tracks. The Euro is by far the most dependable(landfall-wise). The major models have been doing the windshield wiper effect(back and forth) the last 5 runs(approx 6hrs apart). www.windy.com : has really great mapping(defaults to the Euro: ie: ECMWF) especially for wind speeds along the model track. www.spaghettimodels.com : lots of links to just about everything you want to know. As of 12pm today: Latest major model ensemble tracks  |
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Post by geebo on Aug 27, 2023 14:28:17 GMT -5
Sooooooooooooo, I actually prepared an evacuation bag(first since Hurricane Michael) last night, as the major models have been flip-flopping which way Tropical Cyclone "Idalia" will be going. They are all in agreement that this will be a FAST mover, but being approximately three days out(Wednesday AM), I am taking this one WAY seriously. If you are in the Florida Big Bend area(those of you in the Tampa area should be paying close attention as well, remember Ian last year? ), as well as Georgia/South Carolina, I hope this gets your attention, as I've been following this possibility the past week. Sources: www.tropicaltidbits.com : this site is great for following all of the major models and their ensemble tracks. The Euro is by far the most dependable(landfall-wise). The major models have been doing the windshield wiper effect(back and forth) the last 5 runs(approx 6hrs apart). www.windy.com : has really great mapping(defaults to the Euro: ie: ECMWF) especially for wind speeds along the model track. www.spaghettimodels.com : lots of links to just about everything you want to know. As of 12pm today: Latest major model ensemble tracks Be safe and may the (storm) force head away from you. |
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Post by Boomzilla on Aug 27, 2023 15:16:31 GMT -5
Yeah - We're packed for evac too - and no spaghetti plots are even headed our way (yet). Our house has survived storms that damaged all the neighbors' homes because I've planted shrubs around the entire property that serve as wind breaks. We also have a "whole house" generator with enough gas for a week. But... Being only about 100 miles inland, the possibility of Category 5 winds (even here) not only exists but becomes more likely with every passing year. Tornados are also possible. All trees that could fall on the house have been removed, and we have a battery-powered chain saw (with a headlight) to remove trees down over the road.
But we're too old to live without power for a month and a half (as we've had to do before), and have decided to flee if we're in the target zone of a Cat 4 or 5.
My plan is that when New Orleans floods again (better than 50% probability in the next three years and better than 90% probability in the next five), we'll sell our house to evacuees for 2x the current market value and get out of Louisiana. I've a buddy who keeps encouraging us to move to Florida - not a chance.
Be safe!
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Post by LuisV on Aug 27, 2023 22:13:36 GMT -5
We're an hour south of Tampa, ~20 miles inland and have prepared. Fingers crossed that Idalia remains a fast mover and stays much smaller than Ian... he was a slow moving CAT 4 that basically consumed the state. Ian landed roughly 2hrs south of us, so we were indeed lucky; escaped with minor landscaping damage. Keeping my eye on Jim Cantore... his travel plans will certainly influence my decision of bugging out or hunkering down. twitter.com/JimCantoreLCSeminole - I'm guessing you're further up in the Panhandle? |
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Post by simpleman68 on Aug 28, 2023 10:35:41 GMT -5
Our house in Cape Coral should be just fine but as you'd expect, everyone is a bit on edge until it passes over. Hope she fizzles quickly and just becomes good watering for FL lawns during the hot season.  Scott
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Post by geebo on Aug 28, 2023 11:38:27 GMT -5
We're an hour south of Tampa, ~20 miles inland and have prepared. Fingers crossed that Idalia remains a fast mover and stays much smaller than Ian... he was a slow moving CAT 4 that basically consumed the state. Ian landed roughly 2hrs south of us, so we were indeed lucky; escaped with minor landscaping damage. Keeping my eye on Jim Cantore... his travel plans will certainly influence my decision of bugging out or hunkering down. twitter.com/JimCantoreLCSeminole - I'm guessing you're further up in the Panhandle? Looks like it might get bad in Tampa. Are you staying put? |
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Post by LuisV on Aug 28, 2023 12:18:26 GMT -5
We stayed put with Ian, and at the moment, we don't feel the need to bug out; we're just outside of the projected path. That being said, if things change, we're prepared to head an hour or so south and stay with friends.
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Post by geebo on Aug 28, 2023 12:39:34 GMT -5
We stayed put with Ian, and at the moment, we don't feel the need to bug out; we're just outside of the projected path. That being said, if things change, we're prepared to head an hour or so south and stay with friends. Be safe. |
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Post by geebo on Aug 28, 2023 12:41:22 GMT -5
Our house in Cape Coral should be just fine but as you'd expect, everyone is a bit on edge until it passes over. Hope she fizzles quickly and just becomes good watering for FL lawns during the hot season. Scott
Hopefully it will stay far enough north of you to not be a big problem. |
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Post by simpleman68 on Aug 28, 2023 14:40:33 GMT -5
We stayed put with Ian, and at the moment, we don't feel the need to bug out; we're just outside of the projected path. That being said, if things change, we're prepared to head an hour or so south and stay with friends. If you get really stuck for some crazy reason, reach out and I'll set you up at the Cape house for a bit.
Scott
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Post by LuisV on Aug 28, 2023 16:11:05 GMT -5
We stayed put with Ian, and at the moment, we don't feel the need to bug out; we're just outside of the projected path. That being said, if things change, we're prepared to head an hour or so south and stay with friends. If you get really stuck for some crazy reason, reach out and I'll set you up at the Cape house for a bit.
Scott
Thanks Scott... much appreciated! |
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LCSeminole
Global Moderator
Res firma mitescere nescit.
Posts: 20,849
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Post by LCSeminole on Aug 28, 2023 18:35:31 GMT -5
We're an hour south of Tampa, ~20 miles inland and have prepared. Fingers crossed that Idalia remains a fast mover and stays much smaller than Ian... he was a slow moving CAT 4 that basically consumed the state. Ian landed roughly 2hrs south of us, so we were indeed lucky; escaped with minor landscaping damage. Keeping my eye on Jim Cantore... his travel plans will certainly influence my decision of bugging out or hunkering down. twitter.com/JimCantoreLCSeminole - I'm guessing you're further up in the Panhandle? Tallahassee, which as of the latest 5pm update(next one is 8pm), just inside the left side of the cone. |
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LCSeminole
Global Moderator
Res firma mitescere nescit.
Posts: 20,849
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Post by LCSeminole on Aug 28, 2023 18:38:43 GMT -5
The latest model tracks. Interesting to compare to the initial ones I posted yesterday, not much has changed which tells me the models/ensembles are pretty much in agreement. |
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hemster
Global Moderator
Particle Manufacturer
...still listening... still watching
Posts: 51,950
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Post by hemster on Aug 28, 2023 18:54:49 GMT -5
We're watching this one really closely. I'm in Tampa and the weather channel has it coming straight at us.
We are staying put as I had my knee replaced just a few days ago and am unable to drive/travel.
Stay safe everyone.
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Post by geebo on Aug 28, 2023 18:57:47 GMT -5
We're watching this one really closely. I'm in Tampa and the weather channel has it coming straight at us. We are staying put as I had my knee replaced just a few days ago and am unable to drive/travel. Stay safe everyone. And you too. |
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Post by LuisV on Aug 28, 2023 19:42:38 GMT -5
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Post by LuisV on Aug 28, 2023 19:46:16 GMT -5
We're an hour south of Tampa, ~20 miles inland and have prepared. Fingers crossed that Idalia remains a fast mover and stays much smaller than Ian... he was a slow moving CAT 4 that basically consumed the state. Ian landed roughly 2hrs south of us, so we were indeed lucky; escaped with minor landscaping damage. Keeping my eye on Jim Cantore... his travel plans will certainly influence my decision of bugging out or hunkering down. twitter.com/JimCantoreLCSeminole - I'm guessing you're further up in the Panhandle? Tallahassee, which as of the latest 5pm update(next one is 8pm), just inside the left side of the cone. Ah... for some reason I thought you were further south. Hunker down or bugging out... whichever way you decide... be safe my friend!! |
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Post by LuisV on Aug 28, 2023 19:47:31 GMT -5
We're watching this one really closely. I'm in Tampa and the weather channel has it coming straight at us. We are staying put as I had my knee replaced just a few days ago and am unable to drive/travel. Stay safe everyone. Same to you hemster... be safe and fingers crossed that you have a speedy recovery from the surgery!! |
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LCSeminole
Global Moderator
Res firma mitescere nescit.
Posts: 20,849
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Post by LCSeminole on Aug 30, 2023 5:57:18 GMT -5
So I just woke up, 6:50am, to finally see “Idalia” has begun a move to the north/northeast and the local meteorologist streaming the actual radar. Right now current winds are 22mph from the NNE. She is a very strong CAT 3(right now) and looks to make landfall in about an hour or so. I’m glad I took preparation seriously. I had quite a bit of trees cut back and a huge third of an extremely old “Live Oak” tree that hung over my house taken out 3 weeks ago, so I’m glad I spent the money for the piece of mind. “For Now”, the electricity is still on.
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Post by tropicallutefisk on Aug 30, 2023 6:06:21 GMT -5
This thing really turned into a monster. I hope all in her path remain safe.
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